Brentford
Tottenham Hotspur
The model leans Brentford at 47%. Expected goals: Brentford 1.64, Tottenham Hotspur 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Brentford won 3 of their last 4; Tottenham Hotspur won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brentford | 49% | 2.03 | 2.10 | 46% | +4 |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.72 | 3.80 | 25% | +2 |
| 2Tottenham Hotspur | 24% | 4.17 | 3.25 | 29% | −5 |
Pick: Brentford. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.09| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–17.1%
- 0–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brentford −0.5| Brentford line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 24% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.