Predictions · Club Friendlies · outside model coverage

Tottenham Hotspur

30
Won

Hoffenheim

The model leans Tottenham Hotspur at 50%. Expected goals: Tottenham Hotspur 2.02, Hoffenheim 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. Tottenham Hotspur won 4 of their last 6; Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tottenham Hotspur51%1.95
XDraw23%4.28
2Hoffenheim25%3.96

Pick: Tottenham Hotspur. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.02 – 1.38
LineOverUnder
1.585%15%
2.566%34%
3.544%56%
Both teams to scoreYes65%No35%

Most likely scores

  • 219.4%
  • 119.3%
  • 206.8%
  • 106.7%
  • 226.5%
  • 126.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tottenham Hotspur −0.5
Tottenham Hotspur lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.531%69%
-131%22%48%
-0.552%48%
052%22%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%15%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.