Predictions · DFB Pokal · outside model coverage
Erzgebirge Aue
0–4
Won
Hoffenheim
The model leans Hoffenheim at 69%. Expected goals: Erzgebirge Aue 1.14, Hoffenheim 3.40. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 66%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match79
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Erzgebirge Aue | 8% | 12.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 12% | 8.16 | – | – | – |
| 2Hoffenheim | 79% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hoffenheim. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 3.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 66% | 34% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–38.0%
- 1–27.1%
- 0–37.1%
- 1–46.8%
- 0–26.3%
- 0–46.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hoffenheim −2| Erzgebirge Aue line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 6% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 12% | 80% |
| +0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| +1 | 20% | 17% | 63% |
| +1.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.