Hoffenheim
Greuther Fürth
The model leans Hoffenheim at 70%. Expected goals: Hoffenheim 3.50, Greuther Fürth 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 61%. Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 5; Greuther Fürth won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hoffenheim | 83% | 1.20 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 9.40 | – | – | – |
| 2Greuther Fürth | 6% | 16.78 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hoffenheim. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 83%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.50 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 65% | 35% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 3–08.3%
- 3–18.0%
- 4–07.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 4–17.0%
- 2–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hoffenheim −2| Hoffenheim line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| -1 | 68% | 16% | 16% |
| -0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| 0 | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 4% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.