1. FC Köln
Hoffenheim
The model leans Hoffenheim at 45%. Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.69, Hoffenheim 2.15. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. 1. FC Köln won 3 of their last 3; Hoffenheim won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Köln | 30% | 3.35 | 2.90 | 32% | −2 |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.50 | 3.75 | 25% | −3 |
| 2Hoffenheim | 48% | 2.09 | 2.20 | 43% | +5 |
Pick: Hoffenheim. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 2.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes72% | No28% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.4%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.0%
- 2–35.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hoffenheim −0.5| 1. FC Köln line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 21% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 20% | 29% |
| +1.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.