1. FC Köln
Real Sociedad
The model leans Real Sociedad at 43%. Expected goals: 1. FC Köln 1.59, Real Sociedad 1.98. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. 1. FC Köln won 3 of their last 3; Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Köln | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Sociedad | 46% | 2.17 | – | – | – |
Pick: Real Sociedad. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.9%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–35.8%
- 0–15.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Real Sociedad −0.5| 1. FC Köln line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 22% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.