Aston Villa
Real Sociedad
The model leans Aston Villa at 55%. Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.24, Real Sociedad 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%. Aston Villa won 1 of their last 5; Real Sociedad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aston Villa | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
| 2Real Sociedad | 16% | 6.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aston Villa. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.24 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.2%
- 1–18.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 3–17.3%
- 3–06.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aston Villa −1| Aston Villa line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 19% | 17% |
| +0.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
| +1 | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.