Brighton & Hove Albion
Aston Villa
The model leans Brighton & Hove Albion at 38%. Expected goals: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.41, Aston Villa 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Brighton & Hove Albion won 4 of their last 6; Aston Villa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brighton & Hove Albion | 41% | 2.46 | 2.10 | 45% | −4 |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.50 | 3.50 | 27% | +2 |
| 2Aston Villa | 31% | 3.24 | 3.30 | 28% | +2 |
Pick: Brighton & Hove Albion. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 47% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Brighton & Hove Albion 0| Brighton & Hove Albion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.