Bayern München
Aston Villa
The model leans Bayern München at 54%. Expected goals: Bayern München 2.56, Aston Villa 1.36. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 69%. Bayern München won 6 of their last 6; Aston Villa won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern München | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Aston Villa | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.56 – 1.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.9%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.0%
- 3–05.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −1| Bayern München line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 21% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.