FC Heidenheim
Bayern München
The model leans Bayern München at 74%. Expected goals: FC Heidenheim 1.01, Bayern München 4.18. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 63%. FC Heidenheim won 2 of their last 6; Bayern München won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Heidenheim | 4% | 24.88 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 7% | 13.46 | – | – | – |
| 2Bayern München | 89% | 1.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayern München. Calibrated probability 74% (raw model output 89%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 4.18| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 89% | 11% |
| 3.5 | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams to score | Yes63% | No37% |
Most likely scores
- 1–47.4%
- 0–47.3%
- 1–37.0%
- 0–37.0%
- 1–56.1%
- 0–56.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayern München −2| FC Heidenheim line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 3% | 96% |
| -0.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| 0 | 4% | 7% | 89% |
| +0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| +1 | 11% | 13% | 76% |
| +1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.