Bologna
FC Heidenheim
The model leans Bologna at 51%. Expected goals: Bologna 2.04, FC Heidenheim 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%. Bologna won 2 of their last 6; FC Heidenheim won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bologna | 58% | 1.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.35 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Heidenheim | 19% | 5.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bologna. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.04 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 3–16.7%
- 3–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bologna −1| Bologna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| -1 | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.