Atalanta
Bologna
The model leans Atalanta at 46%. Expected goals: Atalanta 1.58, Bologna 1.06. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%. Atalanta won 4 of their last 5; Bologna won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atalanta | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Bologna | 24% | 4.14 | – | – | – |
Pick: Atalanta. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–17.5%
- 0–07.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atalanta −0.5| Atalanta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.