Bologna
Iraklis
The model leans Bologna at 60%. Expected goals: Bologna 2.07, Iraklis 0.74. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. Bologna won 2 of their last 6; Iraklis won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bologna | 67% | 1.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Iraklis | 11% | 8.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bologna. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.07 – 0.74| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.9%
- 1–012.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.2%
- 3–08.9%
- 3–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bologna −1| Bologna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| -1 | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| -0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| 0 | 68% | 19% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.