AEK Athens
Iraklis
The model leans AEK Athens at 65%. Expected goals: AEK Athens 2.19, Iraklis 0.54. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 62%. AEK Athens won 3 of their last 5; Iraklis won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AEK Athens | 75% | 1.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.43 | – | – | – |
| 2Iraklis | 7% | 14.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: AEK Athens. Calibrated probability 65% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.19 – 0.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 2–015.7%
- 1–014.3%
- 3–011.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–17.7%
- 0–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AEK Athens −1.5| AEK Athens line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| -0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| 0 | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.