Predictions · Cup Group Stage · outside model coverage
Nestos Chrisoupolis
0–2
Won
AEK Athens
The model leans AEK Athens at 62%. Expected goals: Nestos Chrisoupolis 0.40, AEK Athens 1.78. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 72%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match23
71
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Nestos Chrisoupolis | 7% | 14.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.43 | – | – | – |
| 2AEK Athens | 71% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: AEK Athens. Calibrated probability 62% (raw model output 71%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.40 – 1.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes27% | No73% |
Most likely scores
- 0–120.2%
- 0–218.0%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–310.6%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–27.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AEK Athens −1.5| Nestos Chrisoupolis line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 6% | 92% |
| -0.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| 0 | 8% | 21% | 71% |
| +0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| +1 | 29% | 28% | 43% |
| +1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.