Predictions · Super League · outside model coverage
Kifisia FC
1–1
Lost
AEK Athens
The model leans AEK Athens at 55%. Expected goals: Kifisia FC 0.59, AEK Athens 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match25
63
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kifisia FC | 11% | 8.70 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2AEK Athens | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: AEK Athens. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.59 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.1%
- 0–214.6%
- 1–110.2%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–38.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AEK Athens −1| Kifisia FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 10% | 87% |
| -0.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| 0 | 13% | 23% | 64% |
| +0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| +1 | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.