Predictions · Cup Group Stage · outside model coverage
GS Marko
2–2
Lost
Kifisia FC
The model leans Kifisia FC at 38%. Expected goals: GS Marko 0.76, Kifisia FC 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 64%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match25
35
40
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1GS Marko | 25% | 4.06 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Kifisia FC | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kifisia FC. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.76 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 2.5 | 27% | 73% |
| 3.5 | 11% | 89% |
| Both teams to score | Yes35% | No65% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.2%
- 0–016.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–29.0%
- 1–26.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: GS Marko 0| GS Marko line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 18% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 32% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.