Predictions · Cup Preliminary Round · outside model coverage
Hellas Syros
1–1
Lost
GS Marko
The model leans Hellas Syros at 33%. Expected goals: Hellas Syros 1.07, GS Marko 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 58%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match36
33
30
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hellas Syros | 36% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
| 2GS Marko | 30% | 3.30 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hellas Syros. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–112.6%
- 2–07.6%
- 2–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Hellas Syros 0| Hellas Syros line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 31% | 32% |
| +0.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
| +1 | 68% | 20% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.