PEC Zwolle
AEK Athens
The model leans AEK Athens at 60%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 0.87, AEK Athens 2.19. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. PEC Zwolle won 0 of their last 3; AEK Athens won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PEC Zwolle | 13% | 7.81 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.82 | – | – | – |
| 2AEK Athens | 66% | 1.50 | – | – | – |
Pick: AEK Athens. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.87 – 2.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.2%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AEK Athens −1| PEC Zwolle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 9% | 86% |
| -0.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| 0 | 14% | 19% | 67% |
| +0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| +1 | 33% | 24% | 44% |
| +1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.