PEC Zwolle
Ajax
The model leans Ajax at 53%. Expected goals: PEC Zwolle 1.35, Ajax 2.36. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 68%. PEC Zwolle won 0 of their last 3; Ajax won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1PEC Zwolle | 20% | 4.98 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Ajax | 59% | 1.69 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ajax. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.35 – 2.36| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 3.5 | 51% | 49% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.2%
- 1–17.8%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–26.2%
- 0–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ajax −1| PEC Zwolle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| -1 | 9% | 12% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 19% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 21% | 39% |
| +1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.