Ajax
Sion
The model leans Ajax at 41%. Expected goals: Ajax 1.68, Sion 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. Ajax won 5 of their last 6; Sion won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ajax | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.84 | – | – | – |
| 2Sion | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ajax. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.68 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.8%
- 0–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ajax −0.5| Ajax line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 22% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.