Sion
Lugano
The model leans Sion at 41%. Expected goals: Sion 1.37, Lugano 0.98. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 52%. Sion won 3 of their last 6; Lugano won 5 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sion | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Lugano | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sion. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.37 – 0.98| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes47% | No53% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–09.6%
- 0–19.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 2–18.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sion −0.5| Sion line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.