Basel
Sion
The model leans Sion at 45%. Expected goals: Basel 1.25, Sion 1.76. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Basel won 3 of their last 6; Sion won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Basel | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
| 2Sion | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sion. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.25 – 1.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.6%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–06.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 53% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sion −0.5| Basel line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| -0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| 0 | 27% | 23% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.