FC Zürich
Basel
The model leans Basel at 41%. Expected goals: FC Zürich 1.38, Basel 1.71. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. FC Zürich won 2 of their last 6; Basel won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Zürich | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Basel | 44% | 2.26 | – | – | – |
Pick: Basel. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.38 – 1.71| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| Both teams to score | Yes61% | No39% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.6%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Basel −0.5| FC Zürich line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| +0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| +1 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| +1.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.