St. Gallen
FC Zürich
The model leans St. Gallen at 64%. Expected goals: St. Gallen 2.44, FC Zürich 0.78. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 50%. St. Gallen won 1 of their last 6; FC Zürich won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Gallen | 73% | 1.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.68 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Zürich | 9% | 10.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Gallen. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 73%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 91%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.44 – 0.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 3–09.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Gallen −1.5| St. Gallen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| -1 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| +0.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
| +1 | 90% | 7% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.