St. Gallen
Thun
The model leans St. Gallen at 50%. Expected goals: St. Gallen 1.97, Thun 1.39. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%. St. Gallen won 1 of their last 6; Thun won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Gallen | 50% | 1.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Thun | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Gallen. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.97 – 1.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–06.9%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–26.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Gallen −0.5| St. Gallen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 22% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.