Thun
Elversberg
The model leans Thun at 50%. Expected goals: Thun 2.29, Elversberg 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%. Thun won 2 of their last 6; Elversberg won 3 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Thun | 51% | 1.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Elversberg | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
Pick: Thun. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 51%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.29 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 91% | 9% |
| 2.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.4%
- 1–26.1%
- 3–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Thun −0.5| Thun line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| -1 | 32% | 20% | 48% |
| -0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| 0 | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 15% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.