Elversberg
Bayer Leverkusen
The model leans Bayer Leverkusen at 52%. Expected goals: Elversberg 1.27, Bayer Leverkusen 2.25. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 65%. Elversberg won 3 of their last 4; Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elversberg | 20% | 5.05 | 5.25 | 18% | +2 |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.66 | 4.33 | 22% | 0 |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | 59% | 1.70 | 1.57 | 60% | −1 |
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.27 – 2.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.5%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–37.1%
- 0–16.7%
- 2–26.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayer Leverkusen −1| Elversberg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 12% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 20% | 60% |
| +0.5 | 40% | – | 60% |
| +1 | 40% | 22% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.