Wehen Wiesbaden
Bayer Leverkusen
The model leans Bayer Leverkusen at 63%. Expected goals: Wehen Wiesbaden 0.86, Bayer Leverkusen 2.47. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 53%. Wehen Wiesbaden won 1 of their last 4; Bayer Leverkusen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wehen Wiesbaden | 10% | 9.73 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.60 | – | – | – |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | 72% | 1.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen. Calibrated probability 63% (raw model output 72%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 90%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.86 – 2.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 3.5 | 42% | 58% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–39.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–37.7%
- 1–17.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bayer Leverkusen −1.5| Wehen Wiesbaden line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| -1 | 3% | 8% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| +0.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| +1 | 27% | 22% | 50% |
| +1.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.