Predictions · 3. Liga · outside model coverage

Wehen Wiesbaden

13
Lost

Preussen Münster

The model leans Wehen Wiesbaden at 51%. Expected goals: Wehen Wiesbaden 1.89, Preussen Münster 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%. Wehen Wiesbaden won 1 of their last 4; Preussen Münster won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Wehen Wiesbaden56%1.79
XDraw24%4.09
2Preussen Münster20%5.08

Pick: Wehen Wiesbaden. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.05
LineOverUnder
1.579%21%
2.556%44%
3.534%66%
Both teams to scoreYes55%No45%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.5%
  • 1010.0%
  • 219.9%
  • 209.5%
  • 316.2%
  • 305.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Wehen Wiesbaden −1
Wehen Wiesbaden lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%24%43%
-0.557%43%
057%22%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%13%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.