Wehen Wiesbaden
RW Essen
The model leans Wehen Wiesbaden at 38%. Expected goals: Wehen Wiesbaden 1.98, RW Essen 1.85. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%. Wehen Wiesbaden won 1 of their last 4; RW Essen won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Wehen Wiesbaden | 41% | 2.43 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.40 | – | – | – |
| 2RW Essen | 36% | 2.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Wehen Wiesbaden. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.98 – 1.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 53% | 47% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.0%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.2%
- 3–24.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Wehen Wiesbaden 0| Wehen Wiesbaden line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 19% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 21% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 18% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.