RW Essen
TSV Havelse
The model leans RW Essen at 64%. Expected goals: RW Essen 3.84, TSV Havelse 1.81. Over 2.5 goals 92%, both teams to score 82%. RW Essen won 3 of their last 6; TSV Havelse won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1RW Essen | 74% | 1.36 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.86 | – | – | – |
| 2TSV Havelse | 13% | 7.43 | – | – | – |
Pick: RW Essen. Calibrated probability 64% (raw model output 74%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.84 – 1.81| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 98% | 2% |
| 2.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 81% | 19% |
| Both teams to score | Yes82% | No18% |
Most likely scores
- 3–16.1%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–25.5%
- 4–25.3%
- 2–14.8%
- 5–14.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: RW Essen −2| RW Essen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 57% | – | 43% |
| -1 | 57% | 16% | 26% |
| -0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| 0 | 74% | 12% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 8% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.