TSV Havelse
VfB Stuttgart II
The model leans VfB Stuttgart II at 39%. Expected goals: TSV Havelse 2.37, VfB Stuttgart II 2.45. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 83%. TSV Havelse won 1 of their last 3; VfB Stuttgart II won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1TSV Havelse | 39% | 2.58 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.09 | – | – | – |
| 2VfB Stuttgart II | 42% | 2.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: VfB Stuttgart II. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.37 – 2.45| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 71% | 29% |
| Both teams to score | Yes83% | No17% |
Most likely scores
- 2–26.8%
- 1–25.8%
- 2–15.6%
- 2–35.6%
- 3–25.4%
- 1–14.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 70% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: TSV Havelse 0| TSV Havelse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 16% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 19% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 17% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.