TSV Havelse
Waldhof Mannheim
The model leans TSV Havelse at 40%. Expected goals: TSV Havelse 2.42, Waldhof Mannheim 2.28. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 82%. TSV Havelse won 1 of their last 3; Waldhof Mannheim won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1TSV Havelse | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.02 | – | – | – |
| 2Waldhof Mannheim | 37% | 2.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: TSV Havelse. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.42 – 2.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 69% | 31% |
| Both teams to score | Yes82% | No18% |
Most likely scores
- 2–26.9%
- 2–16.1%
- 1–25.7%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–35.3%
- 1–15.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: TSV Havelse 0| TSV Havelse line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 17% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 19% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 16% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.