Predictions · 3. Liga · outside model coverage

TSV Havelse

32
Won

Waldhof Mannheim

The model leans TSV Havelse at 40%. Expected goals: TSV Havelse 2.42, Waldhof Mannheim 2.28. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 82%. TSV Havelse won 1 of their last 3; Waldhof Mannheim won 1 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1TSV Havelse43%2.34
XDraw20%5.02
2Waldhof Mannheim37%2.67

Pick: TSV Havelse. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.42 – 2.28
LineOverUnder
1.595%5%
2.585%15%
3.569%31%
Both teams to scoreYes82%No18%

Most likely scores

  • 226.9%
  • 216.1%
  • 125.7%
  • 325.6%
  • 235.3%
  • 115.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: TSV Havelse 0
TSV Havelse lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.526%74%
-126%17%57%
-0.543%57%
043%19%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%16%22%
+1.578%22%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.