Waldhof Mannheim
Kaiserslautern
The model leans Kaiserslautern at 41%. Expected goals: Waldhof Mannheim 1.58, Kaiserslautern 1.91. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 69%. Waldhof Mannheim won 1 of their last 5; Kaiserslautern won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Waldhof Mannheim | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.19 | – | – | – |
| 2Kaiserslautern | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kaiserslautern. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 1.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 3.5 | 46% | 54% |
| Both teams to score | Yes68% | No32% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.2%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.8%
- 1–35.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kaiserslautern −0.5| Waldhof Mannheim line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 17% | 68% |
| -0.5 | 32% | – | 68% |
| 0 | 32% | 22% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 20% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.