Mainz 05
Kaiserslautern
The model leans Mainz 05 at 54%. Expected goals: Mainz 05 1.97, Kaiserslautern 0.86. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Mainz 05 won 3 of their last 5; Kaiserslautern won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mainz 05 | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.34 | – | – | – |
| 2Kaiserslautern | 15% | 6.81 | – | – | – |
Pick: Mainz 05. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.97 – 0.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.6%
- 2–011.4%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–07.5%
- 3–16.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Mainz 05 −1| Mainz 05 line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| -1 | 39% | 25% | 37% |
| -0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| 0 | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.