Predictions · 2. Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Kaiserslautern

00
Lost

Karlsruher SC

The model leans Kaiserslautern at 50%. Expected goals: Kaiserslautern 2.21, Karlsruher SC 1.51. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%. Kaiserslautern won 2 of their last 5; Karlsruher SC won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kaiserslautern53%1.90
XDraw22%4.55
2Karlsruher SC25%3.96

Pick: Kaiserslautern. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.21 – 1.51
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.572%28%
3.551%49%
Both teams to scoreYes69%No31%

Most likely scores

  • 218.9%
  • 118.1%
  • 226.7%
  • 316.6%
  • 126.1%
  • 205.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Kaiserslautern −0.5
Kaiserslautern lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%21%46%
-0.554%46%
054%20%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%14%12%
+1.588%12%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.