Karlsruher SC
Arminia Bielefeld
The model leans Arminia Bielefeld at 37%. Expected goals: Karlsruher SC 1.92, Arminia Bielefeld 1.96. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 74%. Karlsruher SC won 2 of their last 5; Arminia Bielefeld won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Karlsruher SC | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.42 | – | – | – |
| 2Arminia Bielefeld | 39% | 2.53 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arminia Bielefeld. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.92 – 1.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–17.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.0%
- 3–14.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Karlsruher SC 0| Karlsruher SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 18% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 21% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 18% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.