Arminia Bielefeld
Energie Cottbus
The model leans Energie Cottbus at 36%. Expected goals: Arminia Bielefeld 1.59, Energie Cottbus 1.62. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 65%. Arminia Bielefeld won 2 of their last 4; Energie Cottbus won 1 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arminia Bielefeld | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Energie Cottbus | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
Pick: Energie Cottbus. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.62| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.5%
- 1–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arminia Bielefeld 0| Arminia Bielefeld line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 19% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.