1. FC Nürnberg
Arminia Bielefeld
The model leans 1. FC Nürnberg at 43%. Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.73, Arminia Bielefeld 1.31. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. 1. FC Nürnberg won 3 of their last 4; Arminia Bielefeld won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Nürnberg | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.89 | – | – | – |
| 2Arminia Bielefeld | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.73 – 1.31| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–27.1%
- 0–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: 1. FC Nürnberg −0.5| 1. FC Nürnberg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| +0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| +1 | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.