1. FC Nürnberg
Dynamo Dresden
The model leans 1. FC Nürnberg at 41%. Expected goals: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.67, Dynamo Dresden 1.35. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. 1. FC Nürnberg won 3 of their last 4; Dynamo Dresden won 2 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Nürnberg | 44% | 2.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.83 | – | – | – |
| 2Dynamo Dresden | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 1.35| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 3.5 | 36% | 64% |
| Both teams to score | Yes60% | No40% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–06.8%
- 0–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 54% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: 1. FC Nürnberg −0.5| 1. FC Nürnberg line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 22% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 17% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.