Dynamo Dresden
Darmstadt
The model leans Dynamo Dresden at 39%. Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.74, Darmstadt 1.53. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 66%. Dynamo Dresden won 2 of their last 4; Darmstadt won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dynamo Dresden | 42% | 2.39 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.99 | – | – | – |
| 2Darmstadt | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dynamo Dresden. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.74 – 1.53| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
- 0–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dynamo Dresden 0| Dynamo Dresden line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 20% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.