Dynamo Dresden
Union Berlin
The model leans Union Berlin at 38%. Expected goals: Dynamo Dresden 1.39, Union Berlin 1.56. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%. Dynamo Dresden won 2 of their last 4; Union Berlin won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dynamo Dresden | 33% | 3.04 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.75 | – | – | – |
| 2Union Berlin | 40% | 2.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union Berlin. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.39 – 1.56| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes59% | No41% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dynamo Dresden 0| Dynamo Dresden line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.