Aarau
Union Berlin
The model leans Union Berlin at 36%. Expected goals: Aarau 1.67, Union Berlin 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%. Aarau won 2 of their last 6; Union Berlin won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aarau | 37% | 2.68 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
| 2Union Berlin | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Union Berlin. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 1.68| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.9%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
- 1–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aarau 0| Aarau line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 19% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 23% | 39% |
| +0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| +1 | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.