Aarau
Stade Nyonnais
The model leans Aarau at 68%. Expected goals: Aarau 2.79, Stade Nyonnais 0.76. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 50%. Aarau won 2 of their last 6; Stade Nyonnais won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aarau | 79% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.01 | – | – | – |
| 2Stade Nyonnais | 7% | 14.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aarau. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.79 – 0.76| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.3%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aarau −2| Aarau line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| -1 | 59% | 20% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 13% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.