Stade Nyonnais
Winterthur
The model leans Winterthur at 37%. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.31, Winterthur 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Stade Nyonnais won 0 of their last 6; Winterthur won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stade Nyonnais | 33% | 2.99 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Winterthur | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
Pick: Winterthur. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.2%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–26.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stade Nyonnais 0| Stade Nyonnais line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 19% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 26% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| +1.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.