Stade Nyonnais
FC Rapperswil-Jona
The model leans FC Rapperswil-Jona at 46%. Expected goals: Stade Nyonnais 1.19, FC Rapperswil-Jona 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Stade Nyonnais won 0 of their last 6; FC Rapperswil-Jona won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stade Nyonnais | 25% | 3.95 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.85 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Rapperswil-Jona | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: FC Rapperswil-Jona. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 33% | 67% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–28.0%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–06.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: FC Rapperswil-Jona −0.5| Stade Nyonnais line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.