Etoile Carouge
FC Rapperswil-Jona
The model leans Etoile Carouge at 43%. Expected goals: Etoile Carouge 1.99, FC Rapperswil-Jona 1.60. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%. Etoile Carouge won 2 of their last 6; FC Rapperswil-Jona won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Etoile Carouge | 46% | 2.16 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.29 | – | – | – |
| 2FC Rapperswil-Jona | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Etoile Carouge. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.99 – 1.60| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 48% | 52% |
| Both teams to score | Yes69% | No31% |
Most likely scores
- 1–18.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.8%
- 1–05.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Etoile Carouge −0.5| Etoile Carouge line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 20% | 53% |
| -0.5 | 47% | – | 53% |
| 0 | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.