Predictions · dieci Challenge League · outside model coverage

FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

30
Won

Etoile Carouge

The model leans FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 50%. Expected goals: FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.86, Etoile Carouge 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 4 of their last 6; Etoile Carouge won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy50%1.99
XDraw25%4.05
2Etoile Carouge25%4.01

Pick: FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.86 – 1.27
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.560%40%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes61%No39%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.3%
  • 219.6%
  • 108.2%
  • 207.6%
  • 126.5%
  • 226.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy −0.5
FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%22%49%
-0.551%49%
051%23%26%
+0.574%26%
+174%15%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.