Yverdon
Etoile Carouge
The model leans Yverdon at 54%. Expected goals: Yverdon 2.44, Etoile Carouge 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%. Yverdon won 3 of their last 6; Etoile Carouge won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Yverdon | 63% | 1.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 5.04 | – | – | – |
| 2Etoile Carouge | 17% | 5.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Yverdon. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.44 – 1.25| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes65% | No35% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.6%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–06.1%
- 3–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Yverdon −1| Yverdon line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 22% | 36% |
| -0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| 0 | 64% | 18% | 18% |
| +0.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
| +1 | 82% | 11% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.